Preps, Performances and Real Contenders
We’ll be posting some thoughts and comments on the 3-year-old preps as they ready for Kentucky. Scat Cat and TinMan will also add their thoughts from time to time. So, bookmark this page and check back often.
If you are interested in my system for picking the Derby Winner, you can buy it here
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The Blue Grass – Keenland – Saturday, April 14, 2012
I find this field to be the best of any prep run this season. I think it’s the deepest as it contains early burners, pressers, stalkers and deep closers. A lot can happen in here and I really feel that it’s going to be the key to the entire Triple Crown run. I feel the top 3 standouts among the field are: Dullahan, Hansen and Howe Great. While 2 of these have run very well on a synthetic surfaces the other has run very well on grass so I don’t think today’s surface will hurt either of these three in any way.
Dullahan has had one race off his winter break and I feel it was the perfect sharpener for today’s race. He was in the Palm Beach run over grass and Dullahan was flying down the stretch. he finished 2nd and came home in :11 2/5th seconds which is very quick. I think this last effort has helped condition him very sharply and he should be flying down the stretch in this spot. He has run well on grass but his best race was over a synthetic surface where he won the Breeder’s Futurity as a 2-year-old. Bred to run all day and has worked very well for this.
Howe Great also comes in off one race from his winter break and that also being the Palm Beach where he was able to hold off Dullaham to the finish. The thing about Howe Great is that he might be better on grass as compared to dirt. I state this and emphasize might because he is very, very good on grass right now having won 3 out of 3 on the green. However we still haven’t seen his top as of yet so he too figures big in the outcome of this race. Has also been working well for a great conditioner and will surly take some beating down the stretch.
Hansen comes in off a 42 day cycle and has been working extremely well for this race where he figures to give his best effort yet. Last time out the Blinks came off and he settled off the early lead which is exactly how he figures to run today. The day’s pace does figure to be quick with several burners that can challenge early. Will Hansen be able to settle further off the early engines? I believe that today we will see what Hansen is made of because he will have to stay in fairly close range early, seize the lead some time on the final turn and have enough left to hold off the late finishers. It won’t be easy. But today he will be tested for sure.
Afterthoughts:
Hansen ran a very big race in defeat. He set a fairly quick early pace , was challenged on the final turn, opened up by 2 1/2 lengths but couldn’t hold off Dullahan in the late stages. Not sure if Hansen gets better off this race however he will have a hard time trying to win the Derby on the front end especially when considering the other early speed types that figure to make the early pace hot. The stalking off the early lead style will help him get more distance and I am not sure why he didn’t use that style today. However I don’t think anything was going to beat Dullahan today!
Dullahan looked incredible flying down the stretch in about :11 4/5 seconds and what’s even more impressive after he got by hansen on the front end it seemed Dullahan had a lot left in the tank. Right now without reading past performances and analyzing trips and factoring in the pace scenario that will be played out I feel Dullahan is my personal choice to win in Kentucky. He’s peaking right now and it seems we still haven’t seen his top.
Howe Great didn’t seem to fire turning for home. Could he be a better horse on grass?
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The Arkansas Derby – Oaklawn Park – Saturday, April 14, 2012
Solid field signed on for this edition of the Ark and I feel while there are 3 standouts among the group being Bodemeister, Isn’t He Clever and Secret Circle, something with double didit odds can land a big share on the board since this field is deep and these 3 standouts show some dents in their armor. Oddly, both Bodemeister and Isn’t He Clever are entered with their Blinkers coming off. The reasoning behind this equipment maneuver is to try and get each of these horses to settle further off the early lead. Of course this is done to try to get the horse to have more gas saved for the stretch so they can finish stronger. Will this maneuver work? Will it work for both?
Bodemeister is bred to go long on both sides of his pedigree however being that this will be his 4th race in 4 months time combined with the fact that he got leg weary in the late stages last time out and this being a longer race …well, he is going to have to stalk off the early lead if he is going to have enough left to finish on top.
Isn’t He Clever was taken off the early pace last time out however he made a strong middle move (premature) to get to the lead under very good internal splits but weakened late at today’s race distance. Today he gets a very good rider switch and will be asked to settle further off the early lead. Also bred for distance and has a good foundation under him since he raced as a 2-year-old adds up to figure to turn in another big race today.
Secret Circle has turned in big efforts every time out and figures to get the strong pace in front of him to compliment his best running style which is to stalk and pounce. Not crazy about how he drifts out in the stretch but has been getting the job done. Will have to step it up another notch in this spot as the waters get deeper here.
Afterthoughts:
Bodemeister ran a very big race. He had a clear and uncontested lead under fairly quick early splits, was able to slow the pace down into the 3/4′s and mile and then turned it on for the final 1/8th. This being his best race and at the longest distance he has ever run makes me feel that right now this might have been his top because he has only run 4 career races. It’s hard to get better going longer without a good amount of foundation instilled so I have to question his base. Not sure he can run better in 3 weeks going longer. Further, his running style will also bang heads with several other early speed types headed to Kentucky. Today he looked very good but going forward right now is questionable.
Isn’t He Clever seemed to have little making me think that his last race was very taxing. Does he bounce back going to Kentucky?
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The Santa Anita Derby – Santa Anita – April 7, 2012 There is a ton of early speed signed on in here so I am thinking that with the expected fast pace scenario there won’t be much chance for an early speed type to be able to last for the win. This sets the race up for a stalker or closer such as Liaison, Creative Cause and yes, Brother Francis. Liaison showed a strong late kick as a 2-year-old but that kick hasn’t shown up yet as a 3-year-old. In his first off the winter recess he encountered a tough trip and didn’t finish because he clipped heels and lost the rider. In his following start he just didn’t fire. Trainer Bob Baffert is leaving no stone unturned for this race and has worked Liason very hard. Today is his day to shine. The works say he’s ready to fire his best race yet and he’ll have the early pace and distance he’ll need to make his late run very effective. Should turn in a big race today. Creative Cause fires big every time out and seems poised to turn in another big effort. He has a nice stalking style and doesn’t need to come from the clouds to finish his race in a big way. The issue of the Blinkers bugs me though. I didn’t like the way he finished drifting in his last 2 starts and I am thinking that his trainer didn’t like it either so that’s why I feel the Blinks are coming off for today’s race. I mean why else would they come off? Would you mess with this horses running style now after winning 4 of 7 career starts and being in the money in every start? I sure wouldn’t. In reading why trainer Mike Harrington has taken them off for this start he doesn’t mention the drifting issues. He said it’s kind of a experiment. Well, ok, tamper as much as you want and if he loses by say 10 lengths they have a built in excuse. The Blinks will go back on for Kentucky and we will have to reason why he lost by 10 lengths was due to the Blinks coming off. I guess he had them off for his last few works and the horse must have responded well. No one has reported that he worked without the Blinks but I must assume he did. Why would he wait for the race? Wouldn’t he try to work him first without them? Just don’t know why they would tamper with success. Brother Francis is still a Maiden. However in a Grade I race he lost by just 1 3/4 lengths and prior in a Grade 3 he lost by just a half length. So I feel he can run with this field and he has a nice running style where he figures to sit well off the early lead and try to pick it all up in the stretch. he’s bred to get the distance so I wouldn’t be surprised if he hits the board. His last turf start figures to add more conditioning than the norm figures to add with just one race off a layoff since it was run over grass. He has a chance to run a big race today. I’ll Have Another is an early speed type that might have rate-able early speed. Last time out in the RB Lewis he was able to rate just off the lead for the first half mile before pouncing. Can he ba taken further off the early pace? If so he figures to have a shot in here. If not then he figures to get cooked. Afterthoughts: I’ll have Another ran a blue print race. He was able to stalk well off the early lead and waited till the stretch to make his run. He was able to catch Creative Cause and out-game him in a stretch duel to the wire. He has 4 weeks to recover from this, his hardest and longest effort and try to get 1 1/4 miles next time out. We’ll have to see how he comes out of this race and how he works up to the derby but right now he is a real contender. Creative Cause ran a big race. he was positioned perfectly, made his move to the top and looked like a winner midstretch untill I’ll Have Another got up to him. In the last few yards he was simply out-gamed. Did the Blinks not being on make the difference? Will be interesting to see what his trainer does in the following weeks heading into Kentucky.
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The Wood Memorial – Aqueduct – Saturday, April 7, 2012 A solid field will contest this year’s edition of the Wood and it’s a very contentious field. The early speed types that figure to be on or very near the early lead are The Lumber Guy, Gemologist, and Teeth of the Dog. This should set things up nicely for horses that stalk like My Adonis and Alpha. The Lumber Guy has the sharpest early speed in the field and he gets a huge hurdle to overcome by breaking the widest. Plus the gate is going to be placed right before the turn so it’s going to be hard to outbreak the field and get over to the inside. Besides thiese problems he also steps up big time in company and distance. Gemologist is unbeaten in 4 starts and seems like he could become something special. However he has been able to get to the lead or run just off the lead under very soft early fractional time. Today figures to be different because there is some better quality early speed then he has faced plus he has to get a longer distance today. After today’s race we’ll get a better idea of what he’s made of. My Adonis has shown some good early speed and has also shown he can rate off the early lead which helps him a great deal in this spot. He can stay close to a soft early lead if that’s the case or he can stalk and try to pounce in the stretch. Either way he figures to run a big race today. It’s his 3rd off the winter recess and while he has been working very well he also figures to be peaking for this race. Alpha was only about 5 1/2 lengths behind Union Rags last year as a 2-year-old in the Champagne coming off his Maiden win and followed with troubles in the gate of the BC Juvenile. Since then Alpha has steadied his career and has shown he certainly does have quality. His last effort in the Withers was an easy victory as he never seemed to be taken out of third gear. Today he comes back 63 days later and while he has been working well I have to wonder just how cranked he really is. I mean this race sets up for him very well as he can stalk and pounce on some tiring early speed types turning for home. He gets a distance he should relish too. However by the looks of his last couple of works it reads as if his trainer is saying that Alpha really didn’t need too much work. Breezing in :49 and prior breezing in 1:00 4/5ths refletcs a horse that had merely maintenance works. If so then Alpha should be flying late. Afterthoughts: Alpha ran a great race. Early on he had good position in about 3rd on the rail and had to checked pretty severely losing position and ground. He recovered and went to the 3-path, away from the inside and stalked before making his move turning for home. At one point he looked like he was going to catch Gemologist and go right by but in the last few yards he just couldn’t get there. Was the layoff of 63 days the difference in the outcome? Was the incident of being checked the difference? Alpha can certainly move forward off this race and at this point it’s not only winning that’s important it’s being able to move forward off the effort. Very dangerous player in Kentucky! Gemologist had a very nice trip stalking the early leaders in 3rd position just ab few lengths off the lead. made a wide move turning for home and seized the lead fairly easily and had to hold off Alpha in the last few yards. It looked like Alpha was going to blow by but once gemologist saw him he was able to dig deeper. A very good sign of heart! Gemologist seems to be another that can move forward off this race. Yes, this was his hardest and longest battle but he didn’t run hard till the stretch which means it wasn’t as taxing as it first appears. Plus he showed guts when he needed it. Another top player in Kentucky for sure.
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The Louisiana Derby – Fair Grounds, Sunday, April 1, 2012 The favorite for this year’s LA Derby is Mark Valeski and deservedly so. He ran a huge race last time out in the Grade II Risen Star as he just got beat at the wire. Prior he had shown he has a fair amount of sprinting speed and last time out he showed he can carry it a a distance. Can he carry it 1 1/8th miles is today’s question. The pace scenario seems to be in his favor because there will be early speed for mark to aim at in the presence of Arm Force, Comisky’s Humor and Hero of Order. So it seems Mark Valeski will be able to rate just off these early speed types and make his move turning for home. Cigar Street seems very talented but faces winners for the first time and is asked to go 1 1/8th miles also for the first time. Shared Property has run well in big spots before and I expect him to like today’s race distance so he should be running well turning for home. Afford should have run much better last time out in the Risen Star but he encountered problems at the start. Today he should find his stride in the late stages and finish running hard. Afterthoughts: Well, it turns out that Hero of Order was able to get out, seize the lead midway and keep it going to the finish in a very game effort. Won’t be able to run in Kentucky cause he doesn’t have enough earnings to get on the list but his speed might be a consideration in Pimlico. Mark Valeski ran a good race. I figured he would stalk and pounce and that’s what he tried only he couldn’t get to the winner in the late stages of the stretch drive. Not sure he has enough earnings to get in the gate in Kentucky but he is an improving horse – this was his 4th career start, and he should get better off this effort. Cigar Street ran a big race especially considering this was just his 3rd career start. He will be heard from again.
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The Florida Derby – Gulfstream Park – Saturday, March 31, 2012 Very good field signed on for this year’s edition and I feel there are three standouts among the group: News Pending, Union Rags and El Padrino. News Pending is a very strong finisher. And that being said I feel he was taken out of his best running style last time out in the Fountain of Youth. He broke well and was asked to press the early lead. I don’t think that’s his best running style because when I compare his own efforts he finishes much stronger when allowed to settle off the early pace. I feel he will do that in here and will turn in a strong finish. Union Rags came back as a 3-year-old and took that giant step forward as he turned in his best effort of his career. Will he step forward again going longer is the next question and I think the answer will be yes. I expect Union to come back with another big race based on how he has been training. Mike Matz is one of the best trainer’s around and what’s funny is how he is able to fly underneath the radar. He got Union Rags into the best condition of his life heading into his first 3-year-old start in the Fountain of Youth. He worked Union specific distances and directly after the official works he continued on the track and galloped him out at 2 mile clips. That added a ton of stamina and conditioning to Union Rags and it showed last time out. Today it seems Union will stalk again and pounce turning for home. I don’t think the added distance will hurt him at all. Although I do expect a huge battle from El Padrino. And if Union Rags is going to win today’s race he will surely have to run better than he did last time out. And by the way he finished he seems very capable of doing so. El Padrino has some quality speed and he is also a very good finisher. In fact his final 1/8th in the Remsen as a 2-year-old is a very good :12 1/5th which is a rare thing to see in a 2-year-old. In fact, Animal Kingdom had the same finishing 1/8th as a 2-year-old leading to his Derby run. Last time out El Padrino was checked for guts and he showed he has a good amount as he was able to out-game Mark Valeski to the wire of the Risen Star. In fact the finish was so good that the final race time was the fastest for that distance in several years. Coming into today’s race he looks great and has been working well. Of course it’s hard to find news of exactly how he has been working and also how and if he had been “2-minute licking” at all. I read everything written on all the Derby trail horsesfrom several sites and sources and trying to get a handle on how Todd Pletcher trains is a head scratcher. One thing’s for sure, El Padrino is still improving which means we haven’t seen his best race yet. He figures to get better off his last two which means the finish of today’s race will be one very exciting photo. Afterthoughts: Take Charge Indy ran a game race and figured to improve off his prior effort which was hist first start off winter recess. However he did get away with a soft early lead which enabled him to get to the wire first. Not sure he can run any better while aslo considering that the GP surface helped his cause big time today. Union Rags ran ok but should have run much better. His rider should get a good kick in the pants since he allowed the entire field to dictate how he rode his horse. Hopefully a lesson learned. For the most part it seemed Rags was just jogging for fun until he got into the stretch and at one point was trapped but the rail and 2-path did open up but he seemed left with just too much to do on that surface. I don’t see this is a bad race or poor effort on his part and I am sure his trainer, Mike Matz is going to go back to 2-minute licking directly following his official workouts, perhaps 2 more times before he gets in the gate in Kentucky. El Padrino just didn’t fire. He should have been full of run turning for home and had no excuses. Perhaps his trainer will wake up already and train his horse with the longer “2-minute licks” between and after his works. It seems that Padrino has a very big late kick but didn’t show it today. Will his trainer be able to tap into that source by training him a little more deeply? The over all picture of this race doesn’t play out too well because the pace of the prior race, the GP Oaks, for 3-year-old Fillies was run with a much faster 3/4′s done in 1:10 3/5 and finished out in 1:49 1/5 compared to 1:12 and finished out in 1:48 3/5.
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The Sunland Derby – Sunland Park – Sunday, March 25, 2012 None of the 3-year-olds in this field have ever gone today’s race distance of 1 1/8th miles besides Daddy Nose Best. Further, this race is the water mark for everyone in today’s field. If they don’t perform and run big in this spot then I don’t see them moving on to Kentucky. So it’s a giant day for horses on the bubble such as Castaway, Daddy Nose Best, Isn’t He Clever and Tequila Factor. One horse that figures to have an edge at today’s race distance is Daddy Nose Best. He already won at this distance and finished very well in doing so. However many believe that he might be a better fit on grass. Today he gets his litmus test. If he runs big and finishes well then he probably goes on to Kentucky. Afterthoughts: Daddy Nose Best rallied like a rocket to take down top prize. I guess now people will realize he is for real and is one of the best finishers among the 3-year-olds on the Derby trail. He has had a good amount of races under his belt as a 2-year-old and this being his 2nd race as a 3-year-old I am rationalizing that he will have enough bottom instilled to get 1 1/4 miles off this last effort. Trainer Asmussen will most likely give Daddy a string of longer breezes and try and maintain his current edge. At this point I have to say he has at least a shot at all in the marbles in Kentucky. Isn’t He Clever ran a very big race. He was able to stalk an early speed duel and moved to them and took over on the final turn. Gained the lead still under quick splits and simply ran out of gas in the end. He is definitely a talented horse but I don’t think he gets 1 1/4 miles off this race.
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The Vinery Spiral – Turfway Park, Saturday, March 24, 2012 Well, if you don’t run big here then you’re not going to Kentucky, it’s that simple. A few in here are definitely on the bubble and need to run huge races today if they are to continue onward. Perhaps the most interesting horse in this field is Russian Greek. He has a strong late kick and usually comes from the clouds. Bred to run all day and gets Blinks for the first time. Has a very good, strong line of works headed into this race so we must assume he worked with the Blinks and he surely responded. Perhaps the Blinks will get him in top stride a little quicker? Went the Day Well is another that seems able to run all day. Steps up from his maiden win into much deeper waters and we’ll have to wait and see how he handles the jump. Handsome Mike gets a rider switch after putting in a strong early lead battle last time out. Breaks from the widest post which might make him rate a little further off the early lead as compared to his last couple of starts. Thus, he might have more energy in reserve for his stretch drive. Afterthoughts: Well, I feel the only true runner that belongs in the starting gate in Kentucky coming out of today’s race quite obviously is Went the Day Well. He showed he loves distance and seemed full of run coming down the stretch to the wire. Under Graham Motion he is improving and headed to Kentucky in great shape. So he is getting better and quite honestly he will have to because although he looked very good today – he didn’t beat anyone that wanted to go as far and the race time was not impressive at all. H came home faster in his maiden loss on February 4th. No telling what his ceiling is right now and with Motion training him it could be very high. However right now I am jot putting him on top of any of my Exacta tickets in Kentucky.
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The Rebel – Oaklawn Park , Saturday, March 17, 2012 There are about 7 weeks between now and the Kentucky Derby so horses in this field have to step it up right now if they are to be taken as serious candidates to be entered in Kentucky. Sabercat comes in making his first start from his winter break and needs to be better than he was last year to be considered a serious contender for Kentucky. Had has a nice finishing kick as he displayed several times last year as a 2-year-old and must show that late surge in this spot. Secret Circle showed a lot of guts last time out as he battled from the start to the finish. Will be interesting to see if he can take a step forward off of a taxing effort into a longer race. Scatman is blessed with nice early speed and after dueling on the lead last time out and falling short at the wire he did show some guts. However I am not sure he eventually is going to wants to go 1 1/4 miles. Maybe now is the time to turn him back to sprints? Adirondack King has a nice rating style and figures to find himself in a nice spot stalking a strong early pace in which he figures to be flying late in the stretch. Atigun is another that has a strong late kick and will be flying late especially with the anticipated strong early pace. Afterthoughts: Secret Circle gave a very gutsy performance. At one point he looked flat but then he picked it up on the far turn and dug in very gamely to seize the lead to the wire. And although he showed a lot of gameness it seemed he was very tired. Not sure he will move forward after this effort since it was another grueling victory. In addition, his next prep figures to be at a longer distance being 1 1/8th miles. Cyber Secret was in good position early but weakened after trying to get to the lead on the far turn. Not sure he fits on the derby trail any more. Optimizer was running very well through the stretch and he figures to keep improving at this point especially with a longer prep on schedule for his next time out at 1 1/8th miles. Sabercat needed a big effort since he was making his first start back as a 3-year-old but didn’t have much. Scatman was allowed to get off to a soft early lead and packed it in at about the 1/16th pole. Not sure he wants to go much further. But as I said before, what’s wrong with sprinting?
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The San Felipe – Sant Anita, Saturday, March 10, 2012 We have a very deep field signed on with early burners, stalkers and deep closers. The one theme in this fields and the most interesting to me is that there are a few horses in here that ran pretty well as 2-year-olds and didn’t fare well in their 3-year-old return races. These horses all need to run well or very well today to stay on the Derby trail. Liason ran very well as a 2-year-old but in his comeback race seemed to have all sorts of problems eventually losing his rider. Figures much tighter for this race and should give a big effort today. Creative Cause also gave a nice 2-year-old campaign and returned with a sub par effort in the San Vincente. Figures to be tighter for this race and should be stalking in close attendance to the early lead from the start. Rousing Sermon also turned in a big 2-year-old season and followed with a sub par return. Worked well for this race and should be flying late. Empire Way showed some life last time out and is bred to run all day. Would expect more improvement today and should be flying late as he appears to be a very strong finisher. Afterthoughts: Creative Cause battled and was victorious in a gut wrenching stretch drive where he was zigging and zagging but in the end was still able to get up for the win. This was a big victory compared to his prior effort where he finished a lack luster third. However I am not sure he is going to improve off this effort since it seemed he was all out and was wobbling to the finish. Well have to wait and see how he comes out of this race and how he handles going 1 1/8th miles in his next prep. Bodemeister battled on the front end throughout the race and was very game but just fell short in the end. Not sure he can get a longer distance right now.
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The Tampa Bay Derby – Tampa Bay Downs, Saturday, March 10, 2012 Nice sized field with only a few early burners signed on with more stalkers and late finishers. Take Charge Indy had an ok 2-year-old campaign and returned with a solid effort in a Optional Claimer/allowance. Will need to step it up in a big way if he is to remain on the Derby trail. Battle Hardened was able to run a huge race going 1 1/8th miles as a 2-year-old which to me speaks volumes. Returned with a big effort in the Grade 3 Sam Davis and as a Maiden which again speaks loudly. If he takes a step forward off that last effort then he has to be considered a player headed the right way. If he doesn’t take that step forward today then perhaps the Derby trail might be a little too steep for him. Prospective had a fairly good 2-year-old season and came back with 2 solid efforts this season. Feel he needs to run big if he is to be taken seriously and to stay on the Derby trail. Spring Hill Farm will try to steal it on the front end. Can be fortunate enough to get the soft early pace he will need. Afterthoughts: Prospective turned in a giant race. He rallied strongly to get to the front at the 3/4′s point but had to battle to earn it. In fact he had to battle all the way to the finish as he showed a good amount of fight and courage in a quick race being just two ticks off the track record. This was his third race of his 3-year-old season and figuring he will get one more prep at 1 1/8th miles which will give him a great amount of foundation headed to Kentucky. After today’s race Prospective has to be considered one of the top contenders for the Kentucky Derby. It will be very interesting to see how he comes back off this big effort. Will he take another step forward?
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The Gotham – Aqueduct – Saturday, March 3, 2012 Large field of 13 signed on to run 1 1/16 miles and it seems a lot can happen since there are many different running styles. There are a few horses that have a shot at winning but I feel the 3 main players are Hansen , My Adonis and Done Talking. The early pace figures to be controlled by Hansen while My Adonis doesn’t figure to be too far off the early lead. Will be interesting to see just how much cushion My Adonis will allow Hansen on the back side. Hansen has his Blinks off for this race which figures to put him at ease a little bit since he has been too headstrong for his own good of late. He has been working very well and should be ready to fire his best race today so I expect a big effort from him. My Adonis has shown a style where he can stay close to the early lead and he can also settle further back and stalk. Today I feel he will stay within a couple of lengths of Hansen so he doesn’t steal the race on a soft early lead. In his first start back from his winter break Adonis got off to a very poor start and while he was back by about 20-lengths he did manage to find his stride and finished very well. With a better start today he should run a very big race. He has worked very well for this and should fire a huge shot here today. Done Talking is a very strong finisher. In fact his finishing fraction in the Remson was about :11 4/5ths which is extremely good. Today is his first start back from his winter break and he has been working very well over a deeper surface for the most part (Laurel) which makes his works even more impressive. Done Talking will be flying late and fits in all Exacta and Trifecta tickets and at a very square price. Afterthoughts: I thought Hansen looked very good and ran a very big race. He had to work hard at the start as he was about 5 or 6 wide entering the first turn as his rider, Dominguez was trying to angle him in since he was breaking from such a wide post. However he couldn’t get in as much as they wanted especially since there was quite a bit of early speed to his inside at that point. So Dominguez elected to wait and rate and Hansen, always very headstrong , was good enough and calm enough to follow orders. Later, when he was asked he quickly gained the lead and looked very good down the stretch. Taking the Blinks off was a great move and I feel Hansen will be getting better and improving further because he will learn to relax a little more in the early stages thus saving more energy for his finishes. My Adonis ran a nice race but he has no excuses. He simply wasn’t as good as Hansen today. Does Adonis improve off this effort? Not sure. But if he wants a shot in Kentucky then he is going to have to improve a great deal off today’s effort. Done Talking just never showed up.
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The Fountain of Youth – Gulfstream Park – Sunday, February 26, 2012 Union Rags makes his long awaited return to racing and he seems to be ready to run a huge race. Trainer Mike Matz (Barbaro) has him doing very well and it looks as though he will fire a huge return effort. One tough aspect for Rags will be that he is breaking from the 7-post at today’s race distance which means he is at a disadvantage because he will be breaking wide from the gate into a turn. So he could find himself very wide early on. Not sure how much horse they want to use trying to get inside early. With Union Rags I feel it will be interesting to see if he steps forward off last year’s efforts in this first start back. If he does step forward off his past first try back then he could be very special. However if he needs a race to get back to his prior then the jury will still be out of course but I will then doubt that he has the needed brilliance to win in Kentucky. Algorithms made a lot of noise with the high Beyer he got last time out. Yes, that was an adjusted figure. At first Beyer rated his last start 98. I think they added 7 points because some kid dropped an ice cream cone on the track that day. But anyway, Algorithms figures to run another big race. He has a nice running style of stalking the early leaders and pouncing on the turn for home. His finishing fractions are strong so I know he’s for real. Taking handicapping a step further if you compare 1-mile efforts between Algorithms and Union Rags, it seems to me that Algorithms is going to have to improve off his last race if he is to beat Union Rags today. I think Rags turned in a better mile and yet he did it as a 2-year-old. So I feel it’s only natural to expect a better race from Union Rags today given he has run faster than Algorithms in his past. Discreet Dancer is the main speed of this field and it seems that he will be able to get away with some soft early splits. if so he could still be on the lead say midstretch while his rider will be pushing hard to get that last 1/16th. News Pending is a strong finisher and should be flying late. Great Exacta and Trifecta possibilities. Afterthoughts: Union Rags looked incredible. He stalked, moved easily on his own to get near the lead and just blew the field away in a hand ride. Came home in a very good :6 2/5ths. His trainer Mike Matz had Rags long gallop directly after his basic works on several occasions to get ready for his 3-year-old debut and it sure did show. He surely looks better than last year already and he surely has a great chance to not only win the Derby but also to be a Triple Crown winner!
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The Risen Star – Fair Grounds – Saturday, February 25, 2012 El Padrino comes in here looking like a horse ready to burst out and become one of the major contenders to take down the big race in May. He has a rare 2-year-old performance angle where he finished his last 1/8th in :12 1/5th seconds going 1 1/8th miles (Remsen). This is the same angle that Animal kingdom had in his 2-year-old past performances last year. El Padrino comes in fresh and seemingly ready for more as he looked very good in his last start. Will be flying in the stretch. There are 3 horses coming out of the Grade III LeComte, Mr. Bowling, A Dager and Shared Property all which battled it out to the wire and once again each figure to run big efforts in this spot. Afterthoughts: Well, the handlers of El Padrino sure got more than they could expect. Padrino had to battle the entire stretch to gain the victory. In doing so he showed a lot of guts and heart. Two very important traits to have if you want a shot at winning in Kentucky. Also impressed he was able to sit close to the early lead and still finish very strongly. His last 1/16th was timed in about :6 seconds which is very good. Mark Valesky was able to stalk a soft early lead before putting the hammer down and gaining the lead turning for home. He then found himself in a battle with El Padrino where he was very game but lost in a very close finish. Will be interesting to see just how far Mark can get and how he comes out of this last effort which was surely his toughest yet.
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The Southwest – Division I – Monday, February 20, 2012 Seems to be a good amount of early speed types signed on in this heat with a lot of trainers trying to figure out if their horses belong. One standout among this group is Longview Drive. He too has a good amount of early speed and when the Blinks were added last time out in the Grade III Sham he was dead game for the lead and battled to midstretch before getting a bit leg weary to the finish. Today he gets a favorable rider switch and comes in off a very nice set of works. Today’s pace scenario figures to be fast early so it will be interesting to see if Garcia can get him to relax just off the demanding front end. Reckless Jerry might be the strongest closer among this group and if the pace scenario reads fast he figures to be flying in the late stages once again. Castaway is the most expensive purchase among this field at $435,000 and comes in off his maiden score. Might find a trip stalking early. Afterthoughts: Well, Castaway turned in a giant effort coming in off his Maiden score. Castaway certainly pressed the early pace, dueled, got to the top and drew away in the late stages to put together a huge effort. Will be interesting to see if he moves forward off this effort. Longview Drive didn’t get out early to show any of his early speed. Feel as if he didn’t break to be on or near the early lead at the very least he should have been able to stalk from say 3rd position. Instead he was about 5-lengths off the early lead at the first call and found himself about 5-wide. Looked to be bothered, trapped and was brushed at times. Not a good effort.
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The Southwest – Division II – Monday, February 20, 2012 Secret Circle battled it out on the front end in his last start, The Sham as the pace was hot and he did gain the lead in the stress before weakening late due to the hot early pressure. Comes in here fresh off some very good/longer works and figures to be on or very near the early lead once again. Set to fight every step of the way. Cyber Secret, Big Wednesday and Adirondack King figure to be finishing very well and have to prove they belong at this level if they are going to go forward from this point. Afterthoughts: Scattman was tough to down as he was on the early lead and when confronted by Secret Circle on the second turn they dueled the rest of the way to the wire with Secret Circle getting the win by a half-length. Overall I felt that the early pace was honest pat not fast and the main two speed horses showed up and took charge of the race from the start. Both top two finishers showed a lot of heart and guts but going 1-mile is one thing and going/getting 1 1/4 miles is totally at another level right now.
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The San Vincente – Santa Anita, Sunday, February 19, 2012 The most talented horse among this field is Creative Cause. He has won 3 of his 5 career starts and finished a well fought-out 3rd in the BC Juvenile last year. He is well bred for classic distances on both sides and he comes in here off his winter break going 7-furlongs and found a rather light spot to start his 3-year-old campaign. He has a long string of workouts intended to add stamina indicating that today’s race is just to dust him off. I am also thinking that after this race, win or lose, he will come back in about 3-weeks and at 1 1/16th miles aiming to allow enough time between his final prep at 1 1/8th miles and his trip to Kentucky – if all goes right. Afterthoughts: Creative Cause came in off his winter break with a nice set of stamina works looking like he surely would fire in the line. However he looked to be very lack lustre. He stalked off a fairly quick early pace and turning for home he looked like he was a short horse – even at 7-furlongs. Not a good effort at all.
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The El Camino Real - Golden Gate – Saturday, February 18, 2012 Looks to be a wide open event as the pace scenario reflects a lot of early burners trying to get the added distance while the slower, late finishers will get the distance they need for their late kick. Russian Greek has finished well in his last 2 but the waters get deeper in this spot. Acid test today to see if he belongs. Lucky Chappy gets a synthetic surface for the first time however it looks like Graham Motion has done a lot of work with him because in his list of works there are a couple of works dating back to November and December over at Fair Hill. So it would be no surprise to see Chappy flying late. Seems better suited for turf instead of dirt so where does Synthetic fit into that mix? Afterthoughts: Daddy Nose Best showed a lot of guts as he battled from the stretch to the finish to win by a nostril and got the last 1/8th in a very good :12 seconds. To date his best was on grass so we’ll see if today’s effort, run over Synthetics, translates to dirt hopefully in his next start? Lucky Chappy turned in a huge effort in defeat as he was banged and shuffled turning for home but managed to get out and was flying to just miss by the narrowest of margins as he dueled to the wire. Here again we’ll have to see if his Synthetic and turf ability will translate to dirt. But going forward he seems like he will be one of the major players.
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The Sam F. Davis – Tampa Bay, Saturday, February 4, 2012 With regard to most 3-year-old’s at this time of year, trainers are trying to determine just how much potential and ability their horses actually have therefore in this field we have a maiden, several horses off layoffs, horses running on a dirt surface for the first time and a bunch of other angles that creates a very wide open event. State of Play comes in off his winter recess and will attempt a dirt surface for the first time. In his 2nd career start he won a Grade II turf stake and was later entered in the BC Juvenile Turf. Bred to run all day and has been working well for a trainer that has a magic wand on surface switches – so from a handicapping perspective where does that put us today? State of Play is the class of this field so to invest in this race you have to include State of Play somewhere within your exotic investments at the very least. Prospective’s best races were over a synthetic surface however his comeback effort last time out was very good over a regular dirt surface. Figures to be finishing strongly once again. Afterthoughts: Battle Hardened entered here as a maiden and leaves as the impressive winner. He was able to settle a little further off the early lead as compared to his last effort which helped him reserve more energy for his finishing run. He got his last 16th in :6 2/5 which equates to :12 4/5ths for an 1/8th. Just a tad quicker than his last finish. Will be interesting to see how he handles a deeper field next time out but right now he turned in the effort his handlers needed to see to continue on the Derby trail. Prospective finished very well once again and seems to be turning into an iron horse – runs hard every time out. This was another big effort to build on going forward as he was fanned about 6-wide turning for home and finished very well off soft fractional splits. State of Play led early over soft fractions and folded in the stretch. Not sure if dirt is i his future.
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The Withers – Aqueduct – Saturday, February 4, 2012 I really don’t see a lot of Kentucky Derby potential among this field right now besides Alpha who figures to be the heavy favorite in this spot and also figures to turn in a big effort. Last year he turned in a big effort in the Champagne but didn’t follow that effort with a big race in the Breeders’ Cup, although he did have a valid excuse. Alpha is well bred to get the classic distances so we’ll just have to see how he develops. A horse with a shot at landing in the Exacta at a big price is Tiger Walk. If allowed to settle early he figures to fire big in the lane. Tiger has been training very well and should make a big run today. Afterthoughts: Alpha looked great rating off the early leaders and when asked fired a huge bullet to get to the front and clear by 4-lengths turning for home. Cruised home as he looked to be geared down late. A great effort to keep building foundation to get 1 1/4 miles in a few months. Tiger Walk looked rank at times during the early parts of the race but finished well while appearing to need a race off his winter recess. Got up for third which is a positive outcome however will need to see another race to see if Tiger has the goods to be in Kentucky.
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The Holy Bull – Gulfstream Park – Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012 Breeders’ Cup Champ Hansen makes his 3-year-old debut here and faces a small field totaling six. Many 3-year-olds start their season early in January because their trainers are not sure if their horses are going to develop into top 3-year-olds and have a chance to run in Kentucky. So while several in this field have potential, their stables are trying to determine just how much talent and ability they truly have. In the case of Hansen, since he is racing in this spot in January I am going to reason that he will have 3 prep races prior to making his Derby bid. Also angling that Hansen will have his race distances notched out starting with this one mile-event followed by 1 1/16 miles and then 1 1/8 miles. I am not sure just how much or how tight Hansen is cranked for this race as his works are good but not great meaning that he must have done a lot of work on the farm, long gallops over a deeper surface to get ready for this race and to begin his 3-year-old season. There are other’s in here with some early speed which could make the early fractions pretty quick especially when considering that Hansen has never been behind another horse at any call in any of his prior races. So it will be interesting to see just how fast and how far Hansen gets pushed in his first start of his3-year-old campaign. Afterthoughts: I thought Hansen ran a good race although in defeat. He set some strong early fractions while getting his second quarter in a flat :22 seconds over a deeper, sloppy, Gulfstream surface. In all I think it was a good race to build on for Hansen and as I had stated earlier, he might not have been cranked too tightly for this first effort of his 3-year-old season. After the race, Hansen’s rider, Ramon Dominguez stated that Hansen got mad when he stumbled coming out of the gate and was headstrong to get to the lead. This would explain why he got his 2nd quarter in a lightning :22 seconds. And without a run-up for the mile distance, the entire first half-mile is even more impressive. Algorithms looked very good as he stalked from about 5-lengths off the early lead and was able to get to the front at the 1/8th pole. He is now 3 for 3 and seems to have a lot of potential as he looked to have a lot left in the tank coming up to the finish. Bred for distance on both sides being out of Berardini (A.P.Indy) and Ava Knowsthecode (Cryptoclearance) we’ll have to wait and see another race to find out if he is a true contender or did he just freak over the sloppy going.
