We’ll be posting some thoughts and comments on the 3-year-old preps as they ready for Kentucky. Scat Cat and TinMan will also add their thoughts from time to time. So, bookmark this page and check back often.
If you are interested in my system for picking the Derby Winner, you can buy it here
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The Southwest – Division I – Monday, February 20, 2012
Seems to be a good amount of early speed types signed on in this heat with a lot of trainers trying to figure out if their horses belong.
One standout among this group is Longview Drive. He too has a good amount of early speed and when the Blinks were added last time out in the Grade III Sham he was dead game for the lead and battled to midstretch before getting a bit leg weary to the finish. Today he gets a favorable rider switch and comes in off a very nice set of works. Today’s pace scenario figures to be fast early so it will be interesting to see if Garcia can get him to relax just off the demanding front end.
Reckless Jerry might be the strongest closer among this group and if the pace scenario reads fast he figures to be flying in the late stages once again.
Castaway is the most expensive purchase among this field at $435,000 and comes in off his maiden score. Might find a trip stalking early.
Afterthoughts:
Well, Castaway turned in a giant effort coming in off his Maiden score. Castaway certainly pressed the early pace, dueled, got to the top and drew away in the late stages to put together a huge effort. Will be interesting to see if he moves forward off this effort.
Longview Drive didn’t get out early to show any of his early speed. Feel as if he didn’t break to be on or near the early lead at the very least he should have been able to stalk from say 3rd position. Instead he was about 5-lengths off the early lead at the first call and found himself about 5-wide. Looked to be bothered, trapped and was brushed at times. Not a good effort.
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The Southwest – Division II – Monday, February 20, 2012
Secret Circle battled it out on the front end in his last start, The Sham as the pace was hot and he did gain the lead in the stress before weakening late due to the hot early pressure. Comes in here fresh off some very good/longer works and figures to be on or very near the early lead once again. Set to fight every step of the way.
Cyber Secret, Big Wednesday and Adirondack King figure to be finishing very well and have to prove they belong at this level if they are going to go forward from this point.
Afterthoughts:
Scattman was tough to down as he was on the early lead and when confronted by Secret Circle on the second turn they dueled the rest of the way to the wire with Secret Circle getting the win by a half-length.
Overall I felt that the early pace was honest pat not fast and the main two speed horses showed up and took charge of the race from the start. Both top two finishers showed a lot of heart and guts but going 1-mile is one thing and going/getting 1 1/4 miles is totally at another level right now.
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The San Vincente – Santa Anita, Sunday, February 19, 2012
The most talented horse among this field is Creative Cause. He has won 3 of his 5 career starts and finished a well fought-out 3rd in the BC Juvenile last year. He is well bred for classic distances on both sides and he comes in here off his winter break going 7-furlongs and found a rather light spot to start his 3-year-old campaign. He has a long string of workouts intended to add stamina indicating that today’s race is just to dust him off. I am also thinking that after this race, win or lose, he will come back in about 3-weeks and at 1 1/16th miles aiming to allow enough time between his final prep at 1 1/8th miles and his trip to Kentucky – if all goes right.
Afterthoughts:
Creative Cause came in off his winter break with a nice set of stamina works looking like he surely would fire in the line. However he looked to be very lack lustre. He stalked off a fairly quick early pace and turning for home he looked like he was a short horse – even at 7-furlongs. Not a good effort at all.
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The El Camino Real - Golden Gate – Saturday, February 18, 2012
Looks to be a wide open event as the pace scenario reflects a lot of early burners trying to get the added distance while the slower, late finishers will get the distance they need for their late kick.
Russian Greek has finished well in his last 2 but the waters get deeper in this spot. Acid test today to see if he belongs.
Lucky Chappy gets a synthetic surface for the first time however it looks like Graham Motion has done a lot of work with him because in his list of works there are a couple of works dating back to November and December over at Fair Hill. So it would be no surprise to see Chappy flying late. Seems better suited for turf instead of dirt so where does Synthetic fit into that mix?
Afterthoughts:
Daddy Nose Best showed a lot of guts as he battled from the stretch to the finish to win by a nostril and got the last 1/8th in a very good :12 seconds. To date his best was on grass so we’ll see if today’s effort, run over Synthetics, translates to dirt hopefully in his next start?
Lucky Chappy turned in a huge effort in defeat as he was banged and shuffled turning for home but managed to get out and was flying to just miss by the narrowest of margins as he dueled to the wire. Here again we’ll have to see if his Synthetic and turf ability will translate to dirt. But going forward he seems like he will be one of the major players.
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The Sam F. Davis – Tampa Bay, Saturday, February 4, 2012
With regard to most 3-year-old’s at this time of year, trainers are trying to determine just how much potential and ability their horses actually have therefore in this field we have a maiden, several horses off layoffs, horses running on a dirt surface for the first time and a bunch of other angles that creates a very wide open event.
State of Play comes in off his winter recess and will attempt a dirt surface for the first time. In his 2nd career start he won a Grade II turf stake and was later entered in the BC Juvenile Turf. Bred to run all day and has been working well for a trainer that has a magic wand on surface switches – so from a handicapping perspective where does that put us today? State of Play is the class of this field so to invest in this race you have to include State of Play somewhere within your exotic investments at the very least.
Prospective’s best races were over a synthetic surface however his comeback effort last time out was very good over a regular dirt surface. Figures to be finishing strongly once again.
Afterthoughts:
Battle Hardened entered here as a maiden and leaves as the impressive winner. He was able to settle a little further off the early lead as compared to his last effort which helped him reserve more energy for his finishing run. He got his last 16th in :6 2/5 which equates to :12 4/5ths for an 1/8th. Just a tad quicker than his last finish. Will be interesting to see how he handles a deeper field next time out but right now he turned in the effort his handlers needed to see to continue on the Derby trail.
Prospective finished very well once again and seems to be turning into an iron horse – runs hard every time out. This was another big effort to build on going forward as he was fanned about 6-wide turning for home and finished very well off soft fractional splits.
State of Play led early over soft fractions and folded in the stretch. Not sure if dirt is i his future.
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The Withers – Aqueduct – Saturday, February 4, 2012
I really don’t see a lot of Kentucky Derby potential among this field right now besides Alpha who figures to be the heavy favorite in this spot and also figures to turn in a big effort. Last year he turned in a big effort in the Champagne but didn’t follow that effort with a big race in the Breeders’ Cup, although he did have a valid excuse. Alpha is well bred to get the classic distances so we’ll just have to see how he develops.
A horse with a shot at landing in the Exacta at a big price is Tiger Walk. If allowed to settle early he figures to fire big in the lane. Tiger has been training very well and should make a big run today.
Afterthoughts:
Alpha looked great rating off the early leaders and when asked fired a huge bullet to get to the front and clear by 4-lengths turning for home. Cruised home as he looked to be geared down late. A great effort to keep building foundation to get 1 1/4 miles in a few months.
Tiger Walk looked rank at times during the early parts of the race but finished well while appearing to need a race off his winter recess. Got up for third which is a positive outcome however will need to see another race to see if Tiger has the goods to be in Kentucky.
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The Robert B. Lewis – Santa Anita – Saturday, Feb, 4, 2012
This race can go several different ways since we are dealing with a difficult pace scenario to figure out. This field contains early burners stretching out, stalkers, deep closer’s, layoffs and a series of strong works for most of the field.
Liason comes in off his winter recess and has worked very well. He figures to stalk early and hasn’t run a bad one yet.
Rousing Sermon is a deeper closer that also comes in off his winter recess and has battled with Liason a couple of times in the past coming up short by a neck and a half-length. Another that hasn’t run a bad one yet and he too figures to be flying late.
An interesting speedster in this field that could figure big in the mix is Isn’t He Clever. He has very sharp early speed and it appears that his connections have already tried to rate his early speed as they have taken him back off the early lead in his last 2 starts. He is bred to go long so it will be interesting to see just how he handles the slower, early pace and the longer distance.
Afterthoughts:
I’ll Have Another looked very good as he battled for the early lead, was able to settle just off the leader on the turn then rallied to get to the front and open 2-lengths turning for home. This was a giant effort in which he showed he has rate-able early speed and can get a distance. Just how far will he go remains a question he will have to answer in his next couple of starts.
Empire Way is bred to run all day and showed another gear as com pared to his prior efforts as he showed some fire turning for home to finish a strong 2nd. Great effort to build on.
Rousing Sermon seemed to have traffic problems and we will have to see another race before we can determine which way to go on him. Same goes for Liason who also had his difficulties today.
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The Holy Bull – Gulfstream Park – Sunday, Jan. 29, 2012
Breeders’ Cup Champ Hansen makes his 3-year-old debut here and faces a small field totaling six. Many 3-year-olds start their season early in January because their trainers are not sure if their horses are going to develop into top 3-year-olds and have a chance to run in Kentucky. So while several in this field have potential, their stables are trying to determine just how much talent and ability they truly have.
In the case of Hansen, since he is racing in this spot in January I am going to reason that he will have 3 prep races prior to making his Derby bid. Also angling that Hansen will have his race distances notched out starting with this one mile-event followed by 1 1/16 miles and then 1 1/8 miles. I am not sure just how much or how tight Hansen is cranked for this race as his works are good but not great meaning that he must have done a lot of work on the farm, long gallops over a deeper surface to get ready for this race and to begin his 3-year-old season. There are other’s in here with some early speed which could make the early fractions pretty quick especially when considering that Hansen has never been behind another horse at any call in any of his prior races. So it will be interesting to see just how fast and how far Hansen gets pushed in his first start of his3-year-old campaign.
Afterthoughts:
I thought Hansen ran a good race although in defeat. He set some strong early fractions while getting his second quarter in a flat :22 seconds over a deeper, sloppy, Gulfstream surface. In all I think it was a good race to build on for Hansen and as I had stated earlier, he might not have been cranked too tightly for this first effort of his 3-year-old season.
After the race, Hansen’s rider, Ramon Dominguez stated that Hansen got mad when he stumbled coming out of the gate and was headstrong to get to the lead. This would explain why he got his 2nd quarter in a lightning :22 seconds. And without a run-up for the mile distance, the entire first half-mile is even more impressive.
Algorithms looked very good as he stalked from about 5-lengths off the early lead and was able to get to the front at the 1/8th pole. He is now 3 for 3 and seems to have a lot of potential as he looked to have a lot left in the tank coming up to the finish. Bred for distance on both sides being out of Berardini (A.P.Indy) and Ava Knowsthecode (Cryptoclearance) we’ll have to wait and see another race to find out if he is a true contender or did he just freak over the sloppy going.
