“Luck” premiered this past Sunday on HBO and I found it to be very entertaining while also very interesting. David Milch has a way of introducing characters that on the surface seem almost ordinary but  happen to be very compelling with a dark side. And throughout his past television series these intense characters take us back and forth from one side to the other as we slowly sink into their thoughts and actions.

The characters introduced in just the first hour of “Luck” already have my mind and emotions going into different directions. For instance the “old man” trainer that finally has the horse he has waited for his entire life. The ‘”aging gangster” that just got out of prison and is trying to latch back on as payment for what is owed him. The “young unknown jockey” seemingly talented enough to become a star. The group of “track buddies” that finally get their big score.

There is no telling what’s going to happen with these characters but it will ceratinly be an interesting ride finding out.

One other thought I would like to address is that the horse racing industry is hurting in a big way. It seems more politicians would like to do away with the entire industry instead of trying to help it. So with the introduction of a series based on horse racing I was hoping for it to be a huge success and for it to turn more people onto the sport. However if “Luck” is going to create more people getting into Thoroughbred racing than it’s going to have to add characters that smile. Characters that don’t walk around with that “dark cloud” over them.

Maybe it wont happen in this series. Perhaps it was never the intent of the makers of “Luck” to try and build such an audience but it would have been nice. Surely “Luck” will be a big hit whether or not it creates new fans for Thoroughbred racing.  I was just looking for the win-win situation. I guess I am still a dreamer.  For some Thoroughbred racing will always have that dark cloud hanging over it. For me, that dark cloud is really a rainbow.

At NickBorg.com we will be covering every race on BC Weekend including the entire Friday and Saturday race cards offering Selections and Analysis as well as some Spot Plays allong with our noted Pick-3 and Pick-4 Outlines.

I have already been doing some homework on these great races and in fact at this point I feel it’s important to get a grip on which horses have been the most visually impressive during their morning works.

Workings: My man at the track tells me that Turallure is going to surprise many. He has been working extremely well and his last two works were done over a wet and very loose turf course where Turallure was just gobbling up the ground as his rider sat motionless. In fact he has been looking this great during his last 3 works. So he figures to fire big on race day.

Royal Delta seems ready to give her best race yet. Bill Mott has her fresh and revved up where she seems to be sitting on a huge effort.

To Honor and Serve has been working very well with Blinkers. He has never worn them prior so it will be ntersting to see if he actually has them on race day. Honor has a tendency to bear out during his stretch runs however with the Blinks added for the works he has stopped bearing out. So improvement has already taken place.

Closing Notes: The BC races are usually  so competitive that several horses in each field have the talent and ability to win. Therefore in most instances the horse that wins these races is usually the horse that benefits the most from the trip. Analyzing the way each race will be run is very critical in BC races. I recommend spending more time trying to interpret each races pace scenario and concentrate on how the running of the race will unfold.

Good Luck to All and Enjoy a Great Weekend of Racing!

But getting 1-mile after dueling through the first half of the race posting a :22 1/5th opening quarter is eye opening. And finishing in a hand ride and coming home in a very good  :24 seconds is pretty darn impressive to say the least. And quite simply doing it as a 2-year-old means that something pretty special is going on. Of course by the time of Mo’s following victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile everyone knew of the capability’s Uncle Mo.

To start his 3-year-old campaign Uncle Mo was enetered in the 1-mile Timely Writer. But why? I couldn’t understand why this horse, with the chance of being great, was entered in a race and at a distance that just didn’t seem able enough to allow the needed conditioning and foundation to get 1 1/4 miles about 50 days and just one more prep race later.

In Mo’s following race, The Wood Memorial he was allowed the early lead under soft splits and caved in late. I just couldn’t believe that Mo looked so bad. The works prior to the Wood were not very good. And I was up in arms stating that Mo will never get 1 1/4 miles in The Derby training and racing so lightly. I couldn’t believe Pletcher woukld rely on Mo’s talent so heavily without insuring that Mo can get 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.

In retrospect did Pletcher realize something was wrong or different with Mo the prior months before launching his 3-yer-old campaign? What would better explain the weird campaign Mo had been given to start his 3-year-old season? 

Either way I guess that’s all in the past. Uncle Mo is healthy again and looked very good rating sprinting off the early lead this past Saturday. He turned on the juice heading home and got to the top in the stretch in a hotly contested comeback race against a solid field.

He seemed leg weary late and got beat at the wire but I feel it was a great effort to build on. I expect Mo to be his old self next time out having this race under his belt and will show us his brillinace once again.

After just missing the victory in The Belmont Stakes by 3/4′s of a length he followed that giant effort with an easy win in The Jim Dandy drawing away late andagain  followed that giant effort by taking down The Travers.

Heading into the Jim Dandy and again into The Travers I had stated that we still have not seen Stay Thirsty’s best race. What followed were 2 giant efforts by an improving 3-year-old that many had written off earlier during this year. 

Now, arguably perhaps, Stay Thirsty sits atop the 3-year-old division. If he takes down another big race this season …well that’s a no brainer!

Every year the Thoroughbred industry leaders use these same horrible terms to describe the 3-year-olds battling for the Triple Crown. I am tired of hearing it. And frankly, they don’t know what they are talking about.

Most people have come to terms with the fact that the Thoroughbred is not the same animal it used to be. They don’t stand up to the rigors of running and training like they used to. Basically these days the Thoroughbred needs more time in between races to recover and they don’t have the tenacity to keep coming back with huge efforts race after race especially when considering the classic distances.

The breed has changed because the method of breeding changed say about 30 years ago. There was more emphasis put on breeding for speed instead of breeding for stamina back then. Therefore the speed influence has changed the breed we currently know.

Of course we still will find greatness  in the breed as we just witnessed it the past 2 years with Zenyatta for one. But on average the breed has declined in performance and that’s a fact we all have to face right now.  However I just don’t think it’s corect to disrespect the runners of today. They always seem to get less respect than they deserve. If a horse wins 2 of the 3 Triple Crown events he is not considered to be great. ok, I agree with that. But don’t just dismiss the horse and say “ehh, another year without a Triple Crown Champ” and “He’s ordinary”.

Every year I read our industry leaders comments and it amazes me that they just toss aside these horses and their monumental efforts because they fall a little short.

These horses are not average or ordinary but they are dispelled as if they were. Anyone who really saw what was going on in this year’s Preakness Stakes realizes the great effort that was given by the winner and the horse that just came up short. Ordinary, not in the least. A little bit slower than say the all time greats, yes, but not ordinary at all.

Since there hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner for so many years why don’t we just come to terms with the existing Thoroughbred and it is what it is and not for a lack of effort, can’t win the Crown right now? Why not still embrace these horses for trying their best and instead of knocking the industry that built the careers of these so called industry leaders where they still draw paychecks from, why not embarce what we have these days?

You know I have come to realize that these leaders are the ones dragging this industry down. They are the real problem as to why moral and spirit in this game are so low. Why don’t they give something back  instead of just keep knocking it. I guess in reality they are not leaders. Leaders are supposed to be followed. These guys would lead us to oblivion.

I want to see a Triple Crown winner. We all do. But till it happens I will still be yelling for that 21-1 shot to win the Derby.I mean how sweet was that? I for one realize that the 3-year-olds that are being dismissed as ordinary and substandard are the winners of the major stakes races and Breeders’ Cups of tomorrow.

And finally, after this Saturday’s incredible Preakness battle shouldn’t the headlines in this industry’s top tabloids have read ”What A Finish” ! instead of the ordinary and substandard tripe they usually peddle?

What put me on Animal Kingdom going into tjhe Derby was the fact that in just his 2nd career start, at 1 1/8th miles, he was able to finish in :12 1/5th seconds. That  strong finish at 2 was still faster than most of the entire Derby field’s finishes as 3-year-olds. So with some natural progression and the way he was being trined for a longer distance since January it figured he would be full of fire turning for home.

At this point I find his biggest obstical could be Nehro. Nehro who is also a strong finisher seemed to have been too close to the early pace in the Derby. He also entered the Derby having short rest going into his prior prep race. These 2 factors might have caught up with Nehro in the deep stretch at Kentucky because for the most part, when a strong finisher such as Nehro gets to the front in the stretch, usually that type of horse doesn’t get caught from behind.  So thinking as Nehro’s trainer I would want to skip the Preakness and have the 5 weeks to bring my horse back, stronger and fresher for the Belmont Stakes. To me that’s the best way to go with Nehro. This has also been a very strong Belmont winning angle in the recent past.

As a bettor, you know Nehro will be able to handle the distance and you know he will be finishing very strong  on Belmont day if he was given the 5 weeks to recover from his Derby preps and Derby effort.

As for Animal Kingdom, I expect him to win at Pimlico and head to the Belmont fairly fresh however also coming off his 2 toughest efforts of his short career. What he does in the Belmont can only be measured within the horses heart and gut.  It would sure be nice to finally have a Triple Crtown Champ!  We’ll see.

We also had a solid day at Belmont cashing on 6 Wins, 4 Doubles, 2 Exacta’s and 2 Pick-3′s.

At Churchill we scored with 6 Wins, 4 Exacta’s, 2 Doubles and 2 Trifecta’s. 

Have fun spending the Winnings!

Last year a horse that looked like he glides instead of runs burst on the scene and looked to be something special. Uncle Mo had that look of eagles. But I always questioned how he was campaigned and how he was trained. Of course Mo is trained by the great Todd Pletcher, how dare I question his tactics!  I am a handicapper after all, what do I know about training horses?

Many of my handicapping angles and principles go hand in hand with the training procedures I note as I analyze a horses past performances. To me, each horses past performances tell a story and for me to be able to cash tickets I have to read exactly what’s going on within the body of each horses past performances and interpret how each figures to run today. Therefore conditioning and judging just how sharp or heightened a state of conditioning a horse is at coming into today’s race plays a huge role in my success.

What I am getting at is seemingly that Uncle Mo is a very talented horse but he wasn’t able to get 1 1/8th miles on this day because his trainer didn’t have him cranked tight enough. Mo never faced any top 3-year-olds this season. He was raced lightly and trained too lightly. Pletcher likes to use the fresh horse theory for the Kentucky Derby however Pletcher has a terrible record in Triple Crown races and in his theory of keeping horses fresh for the Kentucky Derby he forgets that to get 1 1/4 miles you have to train for 1 1/4 miles.

I find this most recent training maneuver of Pletcher’s evident in Uncle Mo and also with a prior example named Quality Road. Pletcher trained Road almost the same exact way – keeping the horse too freash and not racing him enough or training him enough to get the longer, classic distances.

I know some argue that Uncle Mo has questionable breeding. However if you take a closer look Uncle Mo’s Grandsire is In Exccess who for many years held the track record in New York for 1 1/4 miles. In fact I was at the track when he broke that record back in the 80′s.

Anyway, the point I am trying to make is simply this: Uncle Mo is not trained heavily enough or raced heavily enough and has faced the lighter 3-year-olds this entire season. It’s very hard to win a Kentucky Derby using that logic. And also consider that even if Uncle Mo would have had enough ability and “bottom” to somehow get a miracle win in Kentucky he certainly has no foundation to make a bid at a Triple Crown. 

But really what was I thinking? Triple Crown? Ehh, who knows, maybe a different 3-year-old will surprise us this year. After all a couple of the other 3-year-old Derby contenders have managed to turn in  2 and even 3   1 1/8th miles efforts. Some even have run on grass and have had a ton of “bottom” added to their conditioning. Some have even battled within their efforts, won some, lost some but hanvn’t looked to run and hide. Hey, ya never know! Maybe this is the year after all!

A few weeks ago many scoffed at the idea of Dialed In being entered in an Optional Claimer at 1 1/8th miles and against older horses. The move seemingly backfired to the naked eye because Dialed In lost. However,the amount of condioning gained through that effort, awkward for today’s trainers catapulted Dialed In to the top of the 3-year-old Derby picture.

 It was this throwback move that certainly added a ton of “bottom” to Dialed In’s level of conditioning which allowed him to take a giant step forward today and fly down the stretch in the Florida Derby for the victory.

At this point Zito has to be tickled pink about the situation he and Dialed In are living right now. Win or lose in Kentucky no one else could have done a better job with Dialed In getting to the Derby in such a short time and with as much potential to take the big race down!

I don’t have an online betting account. I used to have a phone account with NYC OTB before its demise. When there was a big race coming up, I’d make a deposit into my account at the local OTB, phone in my bets from home, and watch the races on the OTB channel. Needless to say, this is no longer an option.

I could set up an online betting account. That would probably be the easiest thing to do. But, for some reason, I’m reluctant to do that. Can’t decide which one to go with and worry that it might be too easy to bet, too often. So, that leaves actually going out to Aqueduct to watch the races and do some simulcast betting.

Aqueduct is a mess. With the construction going on for the new casino the place looks even worse than before and half of it is closed off so it gets really crowded. There aren’t enough betting machines and many of the people who use them spend way too much time placing their bets. If you want to place a bet, you better get on line about 5 minutes to post time or there’s a good chance you won’t get your bet in.

I happen to be a fan of Turfway (at least I was earlier in their meet when the field were bigger and better). At Aqueduct they don’t put up Turfway on any of the screens around the clubhouse. I had to peer through the latice work barrier to see someone’s screen on one of the little betting desks that you can pay an extra $3.00 to sit at.  This takes all the fun out of watching a race, let me tell you. I then decided to just pay for a seat in the handicap seating area but they were all sold out.

I guess it’s good for Aqueduct  that so many people have started going out to the track since the OTBs are closed but it is certainly not an ideal situation for the serious horse player. I can only hope that once the renovations are done things improve, but I have my concerns. As with most racinos, the emphasis always seems to go to the Casino part and the horse racing side becomes an after thought.