Stay Thirsty has risen to the top of the heap! Once regarded as Uncle Mo’s stable-mate Stay Thirsty has won his way to the top of the 3-year-old division.
After just missing the victory in The Belmont Stakes by 3/4′s of a length he followed that giant effort with an easy win in The Jim Dandy drawing away late andagain followed that giant effort by taking down The Travers.
Heading into the Jim Dandy and again into The Travers I had stated that we still have not seen Stay Thirsty’s best race. What followed were 2 giant efforts by an improving 3-year-old that many had written off earlier during this year.
Now, arguably perhaps, Stay Thirsty sits atop the 3-year-old division. If he takes down another big race this season …well that’s a no brainer!
May 11
23
Where it’s Really At
I am so tired of hearing it. It’s the same talk every year for the past I don’t know how many years. “They are an ordinary bunch”, “They are a slow bunch”, “They are a substandard group”, “He’s not worthy of a Triple Crown”.
Every year the Thoroughbred industry leaders use these same horrible terms to describe the 3-year-olds battling for the Triple Crown. I am tired of hearing it. And frankly, they don’t know what they are talking about.
Most people have come to terms with the fact that the Thoroughbred is not the same animal it used to be. They don’t stand up to the rigors of running and training like they used to. Basically these days the Thoroughbred needs more time in between races to recover and they don’t have the tenacity to keep coming back with huge efforts race after race especially when considering the classic distances.
The breed has changed because the method of breeding changed say about 30 years ago. There was more emphasis put on breeding for speed instead of breeding for stamina back then. Therefore the speed influence has changed the breed we currently know.
Of course we still will find greatness in the breed as we just witnessed it the past 2 years with Zenyatta for one. But on average the breed has declined in performance and that’s a fact we all have to face right now. However I just don’t think it’s corect to disrespect the runners of today. They always seem to get less respect than they deserve. If a horse wins 2 of the 3 Triple Crown events he is not considered to be great. ok, I agree with that. But don’t just dismiss the horse and say “ehh, another year without a Triple Crown Champ” and “He’s ordinary”.
Every year I read our industry leaders comments and it amazes me that they just toss aside these horses and their monumental efforts because they fall a little short.
These horses are not average or ordinary but they are dispelled as if they were. Anyone who really saw what was going on in this year’s Preakness Stakes realizes the great effort that was given by the winner and the horse that just came up short. Ordinary, not in the least. A little bit slower than say the all time greats, yes, but not ordinary at all.
Since there hasn’t been a Triple Crown winner for so many years why don’t we just come to terms with the existing Thoroughbred and it is what it is and not for a lack of effort, can’t win the Crown right now? Why not still embrace these horses for trying their best and instead of knocking the industry that built the careers of these so called industry leaders where they still draw paychecks from, why not embarce what we have these days?
You know I have come to realize that these leaders are the ones dragging this industry down. They are the real problem as to why moral and spirit in this game are so low. Why don’t they give something back instead of just keep knocking it. I guess in reality they are not leaders. Leaders are supposed to be followed. These guys would lead us to oblivion.
I want to see a Triple Crown winner. We all do. But till it happens I will still be yelling for that 21-1 shot to win the Derby.I mean how sweet was that? I for one realize that the 3-year-olds that are being dismissed as ordinary and substandard are the winners of the major stakes races and Breeders’ Cups of tomorrow.
And finally, after this Saturday’s incredible Preakness battle shouldn’t the headlines in this industry’s top tabloids have read ”What A Finish” ! instead of the ordinary and substandard tripe they usually peddle?
Posted in state of racing triple crown by .
May 11
14
Triple Crown in the Air?
A lot of people are still scratching their heads over Animal Kingdom winning the Kentucky Derby. In my view Animal Kingdom has a great chance to take down The Triple Crown! He is fresh, he is bred and trained to run all day and he has great acceleration to enable him into the mix on the backside well before the deeper finishers.
What put me on Animal Kingdom going into tjhe Derby was the fact that in just his 2nd career start, at 1 1/8th miles, he was able to finish in :12 1/5th seconds. That strong finish at 2 was still faster than most of the entire Derby field’s finishes as 3-year-olds. So with some natural progression and the way he was being trined for a longer distance since January it figured he would be full of fire turning for home.
At this point I find his biggest obstical could be Nehro. Nehro who is also a strong finisher seemed to have been too close to the early pace in the Derby. He also entered the Derby having short rest going into his prior prep race. These 2 factors might have caught up with Nehro in the deep stretch at Kentucky because for the most part, when a strong finisher such as Nehro gets to the front in the stretch, usually that type of horse doesn’t get caught from behind. So thinking as Nehro’s trainer I would want to skip the Preakness and have the 5 weeks to bring my horse back, stronger and fresher for the Belmont Stakes. To me that’s the best way to go with Nehro. This has also been a very strong Belmont winning angle in the recent past.
As a bettor, you know Nehro will be able to handle the distance and you know he will be finishing very strong on Belmont day if he was given the 5 weeks to recover from his Derby preps and Derby effort.
As for Animal Kingdom, I expect him to win at Pimlico and head to the Belmont fairly fresh however also coming off his 2 toughest efforts of his short career. What he does in the Belmont can only be measured within the horses heart and gut. It would sure be nice to finally have a Triple Crtown Champ! We’ll see.
May 11
8
Crushing the Kentucky Derby
Congrats too all our clients as we had a big day cashing tickets this past Saturday nailing the Derby winner Animal Kingdom at $43 along with the Exacta at $329.
We also had a solid day at Belmont cashing on 6 Wins, 4 Doubles, 2 Exacta’s and 2 Pick-3′s.
At Churchill we scored with 6 Wins, 4 Exacta’s, 2 Doubles and 2 Trifecta’s.
Have fun spending the Winnings!
Posted in kentucky derby results by .
Apr 11
10
Todd Pletcher Fails Uncle Mo
I have been hoping to see a Triple Crown winner for more years than I care to count. I was just a kid when Seattle Slew, Affirmed and Secretariat created their magic. And I still cringe at the near misses since with several horses taking 2 of the 3 classic races. So close but so far I guess.
Last year a horse that looked like he glides instead of runs burst on the scene and looked to be something special. Uncle Mo had that look of eagles. But I always questioned how he was campaigned and how he was trained. Of course Mo is trained by the great Todd Pletcher, how dare I question his tactics! I am a handicapper after all, what do I know about training horses?
Many of my handicapping angles and principles go hand in hand with the training procedures I note as I analyze a horses past performances. To me, each horses past performances tell a story and for me to be able to cash tickets I have to read exactly what’s going on within the body of each horses past performances and interpret how each figures to run today. Therefore conditioning and judging just how sharp or heightened a state of conditioning a horse is at coming into today’s race plays a huge role in my success.
What I am getting at is seemingly that Uncle Mo is a very talented horse but he wasn’t able to get 1 1/8th miles on this day because his trainer didn’t have him cranked tight enough. Mo never faced any top 3-year-olds this season. He was raced lightly and trained too lightly. Pletcher likes to use the fresh horse theory for the Kentucky Derby however Pletcher has a terrible record in Triple Crown races and in his theory of keeping horses fresh for the Kentucky Derby he forgets that to get 1 1/4 miles you have to train for 1 1/4 miles.
I find this most recent training maneuver of Pletcher’s evident in Uncle Mo and also with a prior example named Quality Road. Pletcher trained Road almost the same exact way – keeping the horse too freash and not racing him enough or training him enough to get the longer, classic distances.
I know some argue that Uncle Mo has questionable breeding. However if you take a closer look Uncle Mo’s Grandsire is In Exccess who for many years held the track record in New York for 1 1/4 miles. In fact I was at the track when he broke that record back in the 80′s.
Anyway, the point I am trying to make is simply this: Uncle Mo is not trained heavily enough or raced heavily enough and has faced the lighter 3-year-olds this entire season. It’s very hard to win a Kentucky Derby using that logic. And also consider that even if Uncle Mo would have had enough ability and “bottom” to somehow get a miracle win in Kentucky he certainly has no foundation to make a bid at a Triple Crown.
But really what was I thinking? Triple Crown? Ehh, who knows, maybe a different 3-year-old will surprise us this year. After all a couple of the other 3-year-old Derby contenders have managed to turn in 2 and even 3 1 1/8th miles efforts. Some even have run on grass and have had a ton of “bottom” added to their conditioning. Some have even battled within their efforts, won some, lost some but hanvn’t looked to run and hide. Hey, ya never know! Maybe this is the year after all!
