Well, this year’s edition of the Kentucky Derby turned out to be a great race. We selected the winner, I’ll Have Another so congratsn goes out to all our clients.
I’ll Have Another was able to stay out of trouble by breaking from the 19 post and although wide early, was able to settle in behind the first flight of early speedsters and stalk while relaxing in a nice stride awaiting the final turn for home. Bodemeister had his fate sealed after posting an opening quarter in :22 1/5th seconds. Although he was great in defeat as he battled to deep stretch before getting passed after posting some very quick splits up to the mile point of the race. Dullahan finished well but took a while to get in the clear to make his bid and by then he had too much to overcome. Went the day Well also finished very well but also had traffic problems.
I’ll Have Another now heads to the Preakness Stakes and I feel he has a great chance to take the 2nd jewel of the Triple Crown with him as he figures to head into the Belmont Stakes with 2 parts of the crown with him. He has the perfect running style for Pimlico, great tactical early speed with some late kick. He also heads to Pimlico a relatively fresh horse which at this point is a blessing.
Bodemeister turned in a great effort. However this effort came on short rest. It was just 3 weeks from his prior start and surely you have to consider how taxing his Derby effort will play on his lack of a deep foundation headed into the Derby. Oddly, trainer Bob Baffert stated after the Derby that the loss was his fault. He felt he should have added more conditioning into Bode by working him longer and harder headed into the Derby. However he knew that the Derby effort came on just 3 weeks rest and his campaign headed into Kentucky consisted of 4 races in 4 months. So he knew after Bodemeister’s last start before the derby which was his giant effort in the Ark, that Bode might have been taxed already meaning that he couldn’t work Bode and ask him for too much leading into his derby effort. He didn’t want to squeeze him dry headed into Kentucky. So I feel he can’t blame himself. If anything and most obviosly Bode was a victim of the fast early pace. If he was able to go slower in the early going perhaps the outcome would have been different. Now the question becomes – should Bodemeister go to Pimlico or await the Belmont?
If I were his trainer I would bypass the Preakness and use the 5 weeks to prep for the Belmont. True, the Belmont is a longer distance but the early pace figures to be much softer and will allow Bode to get the longer distance. If he goes to Pimlico there is no guarantee that he will be able to run as quickly as he did in the Derby and last on the lead. The derby effort I believe was very taxing and most likely depleted his energy. A horse with more foundation and “bottom” might bounce back a little easier from such a taxing effort. But that’s not the case with Bode. Not racing as a 2-year-old is an important factor and one that leads to questioning the amount of foundation instilled in Bode during his 3-year-old campaign.
In fact If I owned Dullahan and Went the Day Well I would also skip the Preakness and use the 5 weeks to get ready for the Belmont Stakes. Each shuld relish the distance as well as the surface. Went the day Well seemed to need another race under his belt and was almost entered in a race just 2 weeks after his last start. Trainer Graham Motion elected to not race and instead worked Went the day Well a little harder hoping to add more foundation. He certainly did a great job in adding more foundation and if he can train him as well headed into the Belmont with 5 weeks to work with then Went the day Well figures to have a huge shot in the Belmont.
Dullahan has a great amount of foundation stemming from the amount of races he has had as a 2-year-old and from running on grass and Synthetic surfaces. He figures to have a big shot in the Belmont based on that fact alone besides having a very strong late kick. Not sure why so many experts though Dullahan was a better grass horse than dirt horse because he had never won on a turf surface. I don’t think he got beat in the derby because he favors grass.
Giving a 3-year-old on the Derby trail a five week break heading into the Belmont has always been a very strong success angle. In the weeks ahead it will be interesting to see how the trainers of the Derby starters handle their horses in preparation for the next two legs of the Triple Crown.
Feb 12
9
El Padrino = Animal Kingdom?
Looking over the past performances for this year’s Kentucky Derby Pool I i spotted the same angle that led me to select Animal Kingdom in last year’s Kentucky Derby.
The angle I speak of I never heard mentioned among any handicappers in any publications. True, I know several handicappers related to some major publications had selected Animal kingdom but they never spoke of the direct logic or angling that I used in making him my selection.
The angle i spotted in Animal Kingdom was simply that he finished 1 1/8th miles as a 2-year-old in :12 1/5 seconds. That is simply what put me on him all the way to the bank.
The logic being is that most 3-year-olds can’t and won’t be able to finish or get the last 1/8th in their prep races at 1 1/8th miles in less than say :12 4/5 seconds. So if a 2-year-old can get that strong finish already in their 2-year-old season then imagine his late kick as a prepped and developed 3-year-old!
Of course more logic and reasoning went into me being comfortable enough to select Animal Kingdom however looking over this year’s Pool I contenders I spotted this same angle in El Padrino’s past performances.
El Padrino finished his 1 1/8th Grade II Remsen in :12 1/5th seconds. Again, very impressive for a 2-year-old to do that. In fact, most 2-year-olds haven’t run 1 1/8th miles yet. So getting that final 1/8th is very impressive in my book! Right now El Padrino is a horse of interest to me and at 20-1 in Pool I makes me salivate. But as I said earlier, there has to be other reasons to back this finishing angle as a 2-year-old into Kentucky but right now I realize we have a horse that can finish very well going long and is bred by Pulpit (A.P.Indy) and Giant’s Causeway on the other side.
Let’s see what develops.
Dec 11
12
Luck – The New HBO Series
“Is it better to be good or is it better to be lucky”? In the case of David Milch and Michael Mann I find that each happens to be both, good and lucky because they have another hit series on their hands in “Luck”.
“Luck” premiered this past Sunday on HBO and I found it to be very entertaining while also very interesting. David Milch has a way of introducing characters that on the surface seem almost ordinary but happen to be very compelling with a dark side. And throughout his past television series these intense characters take us back and forth from one side to the other as we slowly sink into their thoughts and actions.
The characters introduced in just the first hour of “Luck” already have my mind and emotions going into different directions. For instance the “old man” trainer that finally has the horse he has waited for his entire life. The ‘”aging gangster” that just got out of prison and is trying to latch back on as payment for what is owed him. The “young unknown jockey” seemingly talented enough to become a star. The group of “track buddies” that finally get their big score.
There is no telling what’s going to happen with these characters but it will ceratinly be an interesting ride finding out.
One other thought I would like to address is that the horse racing industry is hurting in a big way. It seems more politicians would like to do away with the entire industry instead of trying to help it. So with the introduction of a series based on horse racing I was hoping for it to be a huge success and for it to turn more people onto the sport. However if “Luck” is going to create more people getting into Thoroughbred racing than it’s going to have to add characters that smile. Characters that don’t walk around with that “dark cloud” over them.
Maybe it wont happen in this series. Perhaps it was never the intent of the makers of “Luck” to try and build such an audience but it would have been nice. Surely “Luck” will be a big hit whether or not it creates new fans for Thoroughbred racing. I was just looking for the win-win situation. I guess I am still a dreamer. For some Thoroughbred racing will always have that dark cloud hanging over it. For me, that dark cloud is really a rainbow.
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Oct 11
25
Breeders’ Cup Coverage 2011
Well, once again it’s time for Breeders’ Cup Weekend and of course I am thrilled. I mean why not? Once again we get to see racing’s best go at each other for two days and the cliche’ of “anything can happen” will certainly come to life as these races unfold.
At NickBorg.com we will be covering every race on BC Weekend including the entire Friday and Saturday race cards offering Selections and Analysis as well as some Spot Plays allong with our noted Pick-3 and Pick-4 Outlines.
I have already been doing some homework on these great races and in fact at this point I feel it’s important to get a grip on which horses have been the most visually impressive during their morning works.
Workings: My man at the track tells me that Turallure is going to surprise many. He has been working extremely well and his last two works were done over a wet and very loose turf course where Turallure was just gobbling up the ground as his rider sat motionless. In fact he has been looking this great during his last 3 works. So he figures to fire big on race day.
Royal Delta seems ready to give her best race yet. Bill Mott has her fresh and revved up where she seems to be sitting on a huge effort.
To Honor and Serve has been working very well with Blinkers. He has never worn them prior so it will be ntersting to see if he actually has them on race day. Honor has a tendency to bear out during his stretch runs however with the Blinks added for the works he has stopped bearing out. So improvement has already taken place.
Closing Notes: The BC races are usually so competitive that several horses in each field have the talent and ability to win. Therefore in most instances the horse that wins these races is usually the horse that benefits the most from the trip. Analyzing the way each race will be run is very critical in BC races. I recommend spending more time trying to interpret each races pace scenario and concentrate on how the running of the race will unfold.
Good Luck to All and Enjoy a Great Weekend of Racing!
Aug 11
30
The Return of Uncle Mo
Late last year I saw a 3-year-old colt named Uncle Mo win The Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in a hand ride after dueling early in a first quarter in :22 1/5th seconds. Now, in my estimation, if you can last on the lead at 6 or 7 furlongs after running the first quarter in :22 1./5th seconds I consider that a nice performance.
But getting 1-mile after dueling through the first half of the race posting a :22 1/5th opening quarter is eye opening. And finishing in a hand ride and coming home in a very good :24 seconds is pretty darn impressive to say the least. And quite simply doing it as a 2-year-old means that something pretty special is going on. Of course by the time of Mo’s following victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile everyone knew of the capability’s Uncle Mo.
To start his 3-year-old campaign Uncle Mo was enetered in the 1-mile Timely Writer. But why? I couldn’t understand why this horse, with the chance of being great, was entered in a race and at a distance that just didn’t seem able enough to allow the needed conditioning and foundation to get 1 1/4 miles about 50 days and just one more prep race later.
In Mo’s following race, The Wood Memorial he was allowed the early lead under soft splits and caved in late. I just couldn’t believe that Mo looked so bad. The works prior to the Wood were not very good. And I was up in arms stating that Mo will never get 1 1/4 miles in The Derby training and racing so lightly. I couldn’t believe Pletcher woukld rely on Mo’s talent so heavily without insuring that Mo can get 1 1/4 miles in the Derby.
In retrospect did Pletcher realize something was wrong or different with Mo the prior months before launching his 3-yer-old campaign? What would better explain the weird campaign Mo had been given to start his 3-year-old season?
Either way I guess that’s all in the past. Uncle Mo is healthy again and looked very good rating sprinting off the early lead this past Saturday. He turned on the juice heading home and got to the top in the stretch in a hotly contested comeback race against a solid field.
He seemed leg weary late and got beat at the wire but I feel it was a great effort to build on. I expect Mo to be his old self next time out having this race under his belt and will show us his brillinace once again.
